Group Stage Preview

The 2018 FIFA World Cup was simulated 200 times using Football Manager 2018(Thank you to @Golden_FM for creating the world cup file). The official World Cup squads or any injuries were not used in the simulations as this was started before they were announced. Also Germany and Japan did not have their official players due to licensing.

The simulation results are being compared to the odds being provided Bet365. The win probability was taken from betting odds using (1/x)*100 where X are the decimal odds for that outcome. Then after each round of games the simulations and betting odds will be compared to real results to see how they compare and if Football Manager is as good at predicting match outcomes as a bookmaker.

I will also be looking at whether Football Manager can find value in the betting options. Any results that Football Manager and Bet365 have within +/- 5% I will consider giving an even chance, anytime Bet365 gives a probability that is 5% more than Football Manager these will be considered bad value as the bookmaker thinks that result is more likely than my simulations are predicting and thus giving it lower odds. Anytime Football Manager gives a result probability 5% or more higher than Bet365 this will be considered a good value bet as the simulations are saying this is more likely than the bookmaker and the result has higher odds.

I will be putting my money where my stats are as well, anytime the simulations predict the favourite in a game to have good value compared to the betting odds and the team is the favourite I will put $5 on that game and we will see if I can end up in a net positive by the end. I will also put $5 on a multi of all my bets to see if I can really hit it big

All of this is just for a fun experiment and should not be taken as expert opinion, remember to gamble responsibly.
Any small discrepancies in numbers are probably due to rounding
Group A

Football Manager Outcome probability%

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Saudi Arabia 8.5 18.5 73 Russia
Uruguay 73.5 16 10.5 Egypt
Egypt 53.5 26.5 20 Saudi Arabia
Russia 35 26.5 38.5 Uruguay
Egypt 21 20.5 58.5 Russia
Uruguay 82 11.5 6.5 Saudi Arabia

Bet365 Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Saudi Arabia 10 23.53 73.53 Russia
Uruguay 66.67 26.67 15.39 Egypt
Egypt 55.56 29.41 20.83 Saudi Arabia
Russia 33.33 32.26 40.82 Uruguay
Egypt 25 32.26 50 Russia
Uruguay 80 18.18 6.67 Saudi Arabia

Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Saudi Arabia -1.5 -5.03 -0.53 Russia
Uruguay 6.83 -10.67 -4.89 Egypt
Egypt -2.06 -2.91 -0.83 Saudi Arabia
Russia 1.67 -5.76 -2.32 Uruguay
Egypt -4 -11.76 8.5 Russia
Uruguay 2 -6.68 -0.17 Saudi Arabia

Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%

As can be seen from the difference table most matches Football Manager and the bookmakers are giving pretty similar probabilities for most matches and the bookmakers predict draws to be more likely.

However, the simulations give Uruguay and Russia a higher chance of beating Egypt than the bookmakers.

Group B

Football Manager Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Portugal 79 17 4 Iran
Morocco 9 23.5 67.5 Spain
Iran 18.5 22 59.5 Morocco
Spain 43.5 27.5 29 Portugal
Iran 3.5 9 87.5 Spain
Portugal 56 21 23 Morocco

Bet365 Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Portugal 73.53 22.22 10 Iran
Morocco 10.53 21.74 73.53 Spain
Iran 29.41 34.48 42.55 Morocco
Spain 54.05 30.77 22.22 Portugal
Iran 5.26 16.67 84.75 Spain
Portugal 65.36 26.67 14.29 Morocco

Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Portugal 5.47 -5.22 -6 Iran
Morocco -1.53 1.76 -6.03 Spain
Iran -10.91 -12.48 16.95 Morocco
Spain -10.55 -3.27 6.78 Portugal
Iran -1.76 -7.67 2.75 Spain
Portugal -9.36 -5.67 8.71 Morocco

Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%

Football manager simulations predict the betting odds in group B to be mostly bad value.
Portugal beat Iran & Morocco beating Iran both seem to have some good value, and while Morocco beating Portugal and Portugal beating Spain are good value both Football Manager and bookmakers have Morocco and Portugal as outsiders in those games.

Group C

Football Manager Outcome probability%

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Peru 33.5 24.5 42 Denmark
France 87 10 3 Australia
Australia 17 28 55 Peru
Denmark 11 20.5 68.5 France
Denmark 70.5 14.5 15 Australia
Peru 7 15 78 France

 

Bet365 Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Peru 30.76923 31.74603 44.44444 Denmark
France 81.96721 17.24138 6.666667 Australia
Australia 28.57143 31.25 46.51163 Peru
Denmark 18.18182 27.02703 61.7284 France
Denmark 58.82353 28.57143 18.18182 Australia
Peru 10.52632 22.22222 75.18797 France

Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Peru 2.73 -7.25 -2.44 Denmark
France 5.03 -7.24 -3.67 Australia
Australia -11.57 -3.25 8.49 Peru
Denmark -7.18 -6.53 6.77 France
Denmark 11.68 -14.07 -3.18 Australia
Peru -3.53 -7.22 2.81 France

Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%

Football manager simulations say that the bookmakers are overly confident in Australia’s ability and betting against them in every game will give you good value. France beating Denmark also has some value to it.

Group D

Football Manager Outcome probability%

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Iceland 7.5 15.5 77 Croatia
Nigeria 10 20.5 69.5 Argentina
Croatia 67 20.5 12.5 Nigeria
Argentina 89.5 6 4.5 Iceland
Croatia 36.5 20.5 43 Argentina
Iceland 31 27 42 Nigeria

 

Bet365 Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Iceland 20 30.30303 55.55556 Croatia
Nigeria 14.28571 22.72727 69.44444 Argentina
Croatia 58.82353 29.41176 18.18182 Nigeria
Argentina 73.52941 23.09469 9.090909 Iceland
Croatia 23.09469 30.76923 52.35602 Argentina
Iceland 35.71429 33.33333 37.73585 Nigeria

Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Iceland -12.5 -14.80 21.44 Croatia
Nigeria -4.29 -2.23 0.06 Argentina
Croatia 8.18 -8.91 -5.68 Nigeria
Argentina 15.97 -17.10 -4.59 Iceland
Croatia 13.41 -10.27 -9.36 Argentina
Iceland -4.71 -6.33 4.26 Nigeria

Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%

Croatia seem undervalued by bookmakers compared to their Football Manager performance with their price to win in every game representing good value. Argentina to beat Iceland also looks to undervalued by bookmakers

Group E

Football Manager Outcome probability%

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Switzerland 40 32.5 27.5 Serbia
Brazil 76 19 5 Costa Rica
Serbia 10 22.5 67.5 Brazil
Costa Rica 11 28 61 Switzerland
Brazil 61.5 24.5 14 Switzerland
Costa Rica 16.5 32 51.5 Serbia

 

Bet365 Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Switzerland 38.46154 33.33333 34.72222 Serbia
Brazil 81.96721 17.3913 6.666667 Costa Rica
Serbia 10.52632 22.22222 73.52941 Brazil
Costa Rica 22.22222 31.25 52.35602 Switzerland
Brazil 73.52941 22.72727 10.52632 Switzerland
Costa Rica 23.80952 30.21148 50 Serbia

Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Switzerland 1.54 -0.83 -7.22 Serbia
Brazil -5.97 1.61 -1.67 Costa Rica
Serbia -0.53 0.28 -6.03 Brazil
Costa Rica -11.22 -3.25 8.64 Switzerland
Brazil -12.03 1.77 3.47 Switzerland
Costa Rica -7.31 1.79 1.5 Serbia

Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%

Fairly even predictions between Football Manager and the bookmakers in Group E. Bookmakers are overvaluing Brazil to win all of their games. Switzerland to beat Costa Rica is the one result that looks to be undervalued according to Football Manager

Group F

Football Manager Outcome probability%

Team 1 T1`Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Germany 60 20 20 Mexico
South Korea 31.5 30 38.5 Sweden
Sweden 16 24.5 59.5 Germany
Mexico 41 21 38 South Korea
Germany 55 28 17 South Korea
Mexico 39 19 42 Sweden

 

Bet365 Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Germany 69.44 23.81 14.29 Mexico
South Korea 25.64 32.26 48.78 Sweden
Sweden 12.5 23.53 69.44 Germany
Mexico 53.48 30.30 22.73 South Korea
Germany 77.52 19.05 9.09 South Korea
Mexico 40 32.26 33.33 Sweden

Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Germany -9.44 -3.81 5.71 Mexico
South Korea 5.86 -2.26 -10.28 Sweden
Sweden 3.5 0.97 -9.94 Germany
Mexico -12.48 -9.30 15.27 South Korea
Germany -22.52 8.95 7.91 South Korea
Mexico -1 -13.26 8.67 Sweden

Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%

Group F results may be a little unreliable, because of a licensing agreement Football Manager cannot use the real German team and instead use close approximations but this may sway results especially as Germany are always over valued and their opponent is always undervalued by bookmakers according to Football Manager. For this reason, I won’t be betting on any of those games just because there’s extra variables affecting results.
South Korea seem to be undervalued in all their games however are not the favourite in any of them.

Group G

Football Manager Outcome probability%

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
England 78 16.5 5.5 Tunisia
Panama 0.5 0 99.5 Belgium
Belgium 47.5 24 28.5 England
Tunisia 73.5 17.5 9 Panama
England 99.5 0.5 0 Panama
Tunisia 4.5 8 87.5 Belgium

 

Bet365 Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
England 73.53 22.73 9.09 Tunisia
Panama 3.85 14.29 86.96 Belgium
Belgium 42.02 30.30 34.48 England
Tunisia 44.44 32.26 30.30 Panama
England 83.33 16.67 5.26 Panama
Tunisia 9.09 20 76.92 Belgium

Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
England 4.47 -6.23 -3.59 Tunisia
Panama -3.35 -14.29 12.54 Belgium
Belgium 5.48 -6.30 -5.98 England
Tunisia 29.06 -14.76 -21.30 Panama
England 16.17 -16.17 -5.26 Panama
Tunisia -4.59 -12 10.58 Belgium

Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%

Football manager simulations says bet against Panama, while you won’t get huge odds the wins for their opponents is pretty much guaranteed. Belgium also represent good value against England and Tunisia.

Group H

Football Manager Outcome probability%

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Senegal 29.5 18.5 52 Colombia
Poland 66 22.5 11.5 Japan
Japan 16.5 20 63.5 Senegal
Colombia 49 20.5 30.5 Poland
Japan 9 16.5 74.5 Colombia
Poland 55.5 18 26.5 Senegal

 

Bet365 Outcome probability %

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Senegal 25.64 31.25 50 Colombia
Poland 54.05 29.41 22.73 Japan
Japan 29.41 32.27 45.46 Senegal
Colombia 40 32.26 34.48 Poland
Japan 18.18 29.41 58.82 Colombia
Poland 43.48 32.26 30.30 Senegal

Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365

Team 1 T1 Win Draw T2 Win Team 2
Senegal 3.86 -12.75 2 Colombia
Poland 11.95 -6.91 -11.23 Japan
Japan -12.91 -12.26 18.05 Senegal
Colombia 9 -11.76 -3.98 Poland
Japan -9.18 -12.91 15.68 Colombia
Poland 12.02 -14.26 -3.80 Senegal

Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%

Japan is another team that Football Manager didn’t have licensing and it may be affecting the results as Japan’s opponents are seen as good value in all 3 games.

Colombia are also looking to be undervalued vs Poland, and Poland is looking undervalued vs Senegal. The bookmakers have both these games are fairly even between all results whereas Football Manager simulations show a noticeable favourite.

The Round of 16, Quarter Finals, Semi Finals, Final, Winner and Individual award simulation results will be up soon so keep an eye out. Drop me as massage on twitter if you have any questions or comments

My bets:
Uruguay to beat Egypt @1.57
Russia to beat Egypt @2
Portugal to beat Iran @ 1.36
Morocco to beat Iran @2.2
France to beat Australia @1.20
Denmark to beat Australia @1.70
Peru to beat Australia @2.20
France to beat Denmark @1.66
Argentina to beat Iceland @1.28
Croatia to beat Nigeria @1.65
Croatia to beat Iceland @1.75
Switzerland to beat Costa Rica @1.83
Belgium to beat Panama @1.14
Belgium to beat Tunisia @1.30
England to beat Panama @1.18
Tunisia to beat Panama @2.10
Belgium to beat England @2.40
Poland to beat Senegal @2.37
Colombia to beat Poland @2.25

Advertisements

1 Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s