The 2018 FIFA World Cup was simulated 200 times using Football Manager 2018(Thank you to @Golden_FM for creating the world cup file). The official World Cup squads or any injuries were not used in the simulations as this was started before they were announced. Also Germany and Japan did not have their official players due to licensing.
The simulation results are being compared to the odds being provided Bet365. The win probability was taken from betting odds using (1/x)*100 where X are the decimal odds for that outcome. Then after each round of games the simulations and betting odds will be compared to real results to see how they compare and if Football Manager is as good at predicting match outcomes as a bookmaker.
I will also be looking at whether Football Manager can find value in the betting options. Any results that Football Manager and Bet365 have within +/- 5% I will consider giving an even chance, anytime Bet365 gives a probability that is 5% more than Football Manager these will be considered bad value as the bookmaker thinks that result is more likely than my simulations are predicting and thus giving it lower odds. Anytime Football Manager gives a result probability 5% or more higher than Bet365 this will be considered a good value bet as the simulations are saying this is more likely than the bookmaker and the result has higher odds.
I will be putting my money where my stats are as well, anytime the simulations predict the favourite in a game to have good value compared to the betting odds and the team is the favourite I will put $5 on that game and we will see if I can end up in a net positive by the end. I will also put $5 on a multi of all my bets to see if I can really hit it big
All of this is just for a fun experiment and should not be taken as expert opinion, remember to gamble responsibly.
Any small discrepancies in numbers are probably due to rounding
Group A
Football Manager Outcome probability%
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.5 | 18.5 | 73 | Russia |
| Uruguay | 73.5 | 16 | 10.5 | Egypt |
| Egypt | 53.5 | 26.5 | 20 | Saudi Arabia |
| Russia | 35 | 26.5 | 38.5 | Uruguay |
| Egypt | 21 | 20.5 | 58.5 | Russia |
| Uruguay | 82 | 11.5 | 6.5 | Saudi Arabia |
Bet365 Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Saudi Arabia | 10 | 23.53 | 73.53 | Russia |
| Uruguay | 66.67 | 26.67 | 15.39 | Egypt |
| Egypt | 55.56 | 29.41 | 20.83 | Saudi Arabia |
| Russia | 33.33 | 32.26 | 40.82 | Uruguay |
| Egypt | 25 | 32.26 | 50 | Russia |
| Uruguay | 80 | 18.18 | 6.67 | Saudi Arabia |
Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Saudi Arabia | -1.5 | -5.03 | -0.53 | Russia |
| Uruguay | 6.83 | -10.67 | -4.89 | Egypt |
| Egypt | -2.06 | -2.91 | -0.83 | Saudi Arabia |
| Russia | 1.67 | -5.76 | -2.32 | Uruguay |
| Egypt | -4 | -11.76 | 8.5 | Russia |
| Uruguay | 2 | -6.68 | -0.17 | Saudi Arabia |
Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%
As can be seen from the difference table most matches Football Manager and the bookmakers are giving pretty similar probabilities for most matches and the bookmakers predict draws to be more likely.
However, the simulations give Uruguay and Russia a higher chance of beating Egypt than the bookmakers.
Group B
Football Manager Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Portugal | 79 | 17 | 4 | Iran |
| Morocco | 9 | 23.5 | 67.5 | Spain |
| Iran | 18.5 | 22 | 59.5 | Morocco |
| Spain | 43.5 | 27.5 | 29 | Portugal |
| Iran | 3.5 | 9 | 87.5 | Spain |
| Portugal | 56 | 21 | 23 | Morocco |
Bet365 Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Portugal | 73.53 | 22.22 | 10 | Iran |
| Morocco | 10.53 | 21.74 | 73.53 | Spain |
| Iran | 29.41 | 34.48 | 42.55 | Morocco |
| Spain | 54.05 | 30.77 | 22.22 | Portugal |
| Iran | 5.26 | 16.67 | 84.75 | Spain |
| Portugal | 65.36 | 26.67 | 14.29 | Morocco |
Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Portugal | 5.47 | -5.22 | -6 | Iran |
| Morocco | -1.53 | 1.76 | -6.03 | Spain |
| Iran | -10.91 | -12.48 | 16.95 | Morocco |
| Spain | -10.55 | -3.27 | 6.78 | Portugal |
| Iran | -1.76 | -7.67 | 2.75 | Spain |
| Portugal | -9.36 | -5.67 | 8.71 | Morocco |
Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%
Football manager simulations predict the betting odds in group B to be mostly bad value.
Portugal beat Iran & Morocco beating Iran both seem to have some good value, and while Morocco beating Portugal and Portugal beating Spain are good value both Football Manager and bookmakers have Morocco and Portugal as outsiders in those games.
Group C
Football Manager Outcome probability%
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Peru | 33.5 | 24.5 | 42 | Denmark |
| France | 87 | 10 | 3 | Australia |
| Australia | 17 | 28 | 55 | Peru |
| Denmark | 11 | 20.5 | 68.5 | France |
| Denmark | 70.5 | 14.5 | 15 | Australia |
| Peru | 7 | 15 | 78 | France |
Bet365 Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Peru | 30.76923 | 31.74603 | 44.44444 | Denmark |
| France | 81.96721 | 17.24138 | 6.666667 | Australia |
| Australia | 28.57143 | 31.25 | 46.51163 | Peru |
| Denmark | 18.18182 | 27.02703 | 61.7284 | France |
| Denmark | 58.82353 | 28.57143 | 18.18182 | Australia |
| Peru | 10.52632 | 22.22222 | 75.18797 | France |
Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Peru | 2.73 | -7.25 | -2.44 | Denmark |
| France | 5.03 | -7.24 | -3.67 | Australia |
| Australia | -11.57 | -3.25 | 8.49 | Peru |
| Denmark | -7.18 | -6.53 | 6.77 | France |
| Denmark | 11.68 | -14.07 | -3.18 | Australia |
| Peru | -3.53 | -7.22 | 2.81 | France |
Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%
Football manager simulations say that the bookmakers are overly confident in Australia’s ability and betting against them in every game will give you good value. France beating Denmark also has some value to it.
Group D
Football Manager Outcome probability%
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Iceland | 7.5 | 15.5 | 77 | Croatia |
| Nigeria | 10 | 20.5 | 69.5 | Argentina |
| Croatia | 67 | 20.5 | 12.5 | Nigeria |
| Argentina | 89.5 | 6 | 4.5 | Iceland |
| Croatia | 36.5 | 20.5 | 43 | Argentina |
| Iceland | 31 | 27 | 42 | Nigeria |
Bet365 Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Iceland | 20 | 30.30303 | 55.55556 | Croatia |
| Nigeria | 14.28571 | 22.72727 | 69.44444 | Argentina |
| Croatia | 58.82353 | 29.41176 | 18.18182 | Nigeria |
| Argentina | 73.52941 | 23.09469 | 9.090909 | Iceland |
| Croatia | 23.09469 | 30.76923 | 52.35602 | Argentina |
| Iceland | 35.71429 | 33.33333 | 37.73585 | Nigeria |
Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Iceland | -12.5 | -14.80 | 21.44 | Croatia |
| Nigeria | -4.29 | -2.23 | 0.06 | Argentina |
| Croatia | 8.18 | -8.91 | -5.68 | Nigeria |
| Argentina | 15.97 | -17.10 | -4.59 | Iceland |
| Croatia | 13.41 | -10.27 | -9.36 | Argentina |
| Iceland | -4.71 | -6.33 | 4.26 | Nigeria |
Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%
Croatia seem undervalued by bookmakers compared to their Football Manager performance with their price to win in every game representing good value. Argentina to beat Iceland also looks to undervalued by bookmakers
Group E
Football Manager Outcome probability%
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Switzerland | 40 | 32.5 | 27.5 | Serbia |
| Brazil | 76 | 19 | 5 | Costa Rica |
| Serbia | 10 | 22.5 | 67.5 | Brazil |
| Costa Rica | 11 | 28 | 61 | Switzerland |
| Brazil | 61.5 | 24.5 | 14 | Switzerland |
| Costa Rica | 16.5 | 32 | 51.5 | Serbia |
Bet365 Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Switzerland | 38.46154 | 33.33333 | 34.72222 | Serbia |
| Brazil | 81.96721 | 17.3913 | 6.666667 | Costa Rica |
| Serbia | 10.52632 | 22.22222 | 73.52941 | Brazil |
| Costa Rica | 22.22222 | 31.25 | 52.35602 | Switzerland |
| Brazil | 73.52941 | 22.72727 | 10.52632 | Switzerland |
| Costa Rica | 23.80952 | 30.21148 | 50 | Serbia |
Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Switzerland | 1.54 | -0.83 | -7.22 | Serbia |
| Brazil | -5.97 | 1.61 | -1.67 | Costa Rica |
| Serbia | -0.53 | 0.28 | -6.03 | Brazil |
| Costa Rica | -11.22 | -3.25 | 8.64 | Switzerland |
| Brazil | -12.03 | 1.77 | 3.47 | Switzerland |
| Costa Rica | -7.31 | 1.79 | 1.5 | Serbia |
Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%
Fairly even predictions between Football Manager and the bookmakers in Group E. Bookmakers are overvaluing Brazil to win all of their games. Switzerland to beat Costa Rica is the one result that looks to be undervalued according to Football Manager
Group F
Football Manager Outcome probability%
| Team 1 | T1`Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Germany | 60 | 20 | 20 | Mexico |
| South Korea | 31.5 | 30 | 38.5 | Sweden |
| Sweden | 16 | 24.5 | 59.5 | Germany |
| Mexico | 41 | 21 | 38 | South Korea |
| Germany | 55 | 28 | 17 | South Korea |
| Mexico | 39 | 19 | 42 | Sweden |
Bet365 Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Germany | 69.44 | 23.81 | 14.29 | Mexico |
| South Korea | 25.64 | 32.26 | 48.78 | Sweden |
| Sweden | 12.5 | 23.53 | 69.44 | Germany |
| Mexico | 53.48 | 30.30 | 22.73 | South Korea |
| Germany | 77.52 | 19.05 | 9.09 | South Korea |
| Mexico | 40 | 32.26 | 33.33 | Sweden |
Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Germany | -9.44 | -3.81 | 5.71 | Mexico |
| South Korea | 5.86 | -2.26 | -10.28 | Sweden |
| Sweden | 3.5 | 0.97 | -9.94 | Germany |
| Mexico | -12.48 | -9.30 | 15.27 | South Korea |
| Germany | -22.52 | 8.95 | 7.91 | South Korea |
| Mexico | -1 | -13.26 | 8.67 | Sweden |
Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%
Group F results may be a little unreliable, because of a licensing agreement Football Manager cannot use the real German team and instead use close approximations but this may sway results especially as Germany are always over valued and their opponent is always undervalued by bookmakers according to Football Manager. For this reason, I won’t be betting on any of those games just because there’s extra variables affecting results.
South Korea seem to be undervalued in all their games however are not the favourite in any of them.
Group G
Football Manager Outcome probability%
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| England | 78 | 16.5 | 5.5 | Tunisia |
| Panama | 0.5 | 0 | 99.5 | Belgium |
| Belgium | 47.5 | 24 | 28.5 | England |
| Tunisia | 73.5 | 17.5 | 9 | Panama |
| England | 99.5 | 0.5 | 0 | Panama |
| Tunisia | 4.5 | 8 | 87.5 | Belgium |
Bet365 Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| England | 73.53 | 22.73 | 9.09 | Tunisia |
| Panama | 3.85 | 14.29 | 86.96 | Belgium |
| Belgium | 42.02 | 30.30 | 34.48 | England |
| Tunisia | 44.44 | 32.26 | 30.30 | Panama |
| England | 83.33 | 16.67 | 5.26 | Panama |
| Tunisia | 9.09 | 20 | 76.92 | Belgium |
Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| England | 4.47 | -6.23 | -3.59 | Tunisia |
| Panama | -3.35 | -14.29 | 12.54 | Belgium |
| Belgium | 5.48 | -6.30 | -5.98 | England |
| Tunisia | 29.06 | -14.76 | -21.30 | Panama |
| England | 16.17 | -16.17 | -5.26 | Panama |
| Tunisia | -4.59 | -12 | 10.58 | Belgium |
Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%
Football manager simulations says bet against Panama, while you won’t get huge odds the wins for their opponents is pretty much guaranteed. Belgium also represent good value against England and Tunisia.
Group H
Football Manager Outcome probability%
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Senegal | 29.5 | 18.5 | 52 | Colombia |
| Poland | 66 | 22.5 | 11.5 | Japan |
| Japan | 16.5 | 20 | 63.5 | Senegal |
| Colombia | 49 | 20.5 | 30.5 | Poland |
| Japan | 9 | 16.5 | 74.5 | Colombia |
| Poland | 55.5 | 18 | 26.5 | Senegal |
Bet365 Outcome probability %
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Senegal | 25.64 | 31.25 | 50 | Colombia |
| Poland | 54.05 | 29.41 | 22.73 | Japan |
| Japan | 29.41 | 32.27 | 45.46 | Senegal |
| Colombia | 40 | 32.26 | 34.48 | Poland |
| Japan | 18.18 | 29.41 | 58.82 | Colombia |
| Poland | 43.48 | 32.26 | 30.30 | Senegal |
Probability% Difference between Football Manager and Bet365
| Team 1 | T1 Win | Draw | T2 Win | Team 2 |
| Senegal | 3.86 | -12.75 | 2 | Colombia |
| Poland | 11.95 | -6.91 | -11.23 | Japan |
| Japan | -12.91 | -12.26 | 18.05 | Senegal |
| Colombia | 9 | -11.76 | -3.98 | Poland |
| Japan | -9.18 | -12.91 | 15.68 | Colombia |
| Poland | 12.02 | -14.26 | -3.80 | Senegal |
Betting company outcome % higher
Football Manager outcome % higher
Outcome % within +/-5%
Japan is another team that Football Manager didn’t have licensing and it may be affecting the results as Japan’s opponents are seen as good value in all 3 games.
Colombia are also looking to be undervalued vs Poland, and Poland is looking undervalued vs Senegal. The bookmakers have both these games are fairly even between all results whereas Football Manager simulations show a noticeable favourite.
The Round of 16, Quarter Finals, Semi Finals, Final, Winner and Individual award simulation results will be up soon so keep an eye out. Drop me as massage on twitter if you have any questions or comments
My bets:
Uruguay to beat Egypt @1.57
Russia to beat Egypt @2
Portugal to beat Iran @ 1.36
Morocco to beat Iran @2.2
France to beat Australia @1.20
Denmark to beat Australia @1.70
Peru to beat Australia @2.20
France to beat Denmark @1.66
Argentina to beat Iceland @1.28
Croatia to beat Nigeria @1.65
Croatia to beat Iceland @1.75
Switzerland to beat Costa Rica @1.83
Belgium to beat Panama @1.14
Belgium to beat Tunisia @1.30
England to beat Panama @1.18
Tunisia to beat Panama @2.10
Belgium to beat England @2.40
Poland to beat Senegal @2.37
Colombia to beat Poland @2.25
Standard Daveiation 